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2012 Football Offer Breakdown

by ElvisHog on May 13, 2011

Troyt37 is our resident recruiting documenter. He’s been keeping up with the Hog offer list for a couple of years and doing a bangup job with it. Here’s the 2012 offer list that he’s been maintaining. It’s always an interesting read.

In the 2012 recruiting thread, he made a really interesting post about how many four and five star recruits (according to Rivals) we currently have offers out to. He first noted that almost 54% of our offers are to those level recruits, but then goes on further with it.

I don’t even know why my brain wonders about these things, but here goes. Someone who knows more than me would have to discern what, if anything, this means. Does LSU, Florida, Bama, and Auburn offer more 5 stars because they are the ones with a realistic chance at a committment, or do these kids become 5 stars when the goobers at Rivals see offers from those schools?

School# Offers% to 4 & 5 Stars#5 Stars Offered
LSU8481%7
Florida12880%14
Alabama13975%9
Auburn15274%15
Tennessee14468%4
S Carolina14259%9
Arkansas13654%4
Vanderbilt19244%5
Ole Miss8034%0
Kentucky8533%0
Mississippi St10132%1

A statistical wizard could integrate all sorts of variables, including how many 4 and 5 star recruits are within a certain radius of the school, giving them a better shot at the recruit, but I’m not going to dig too deep on that. But I say that’s the reason LSU and Florida are at the top of the list with the highest percent.

Without doing more analysis than I feel like doing on this glorious Friday morning, I feel that we’re going for more top level recruits than ever before. Biddy on Rivals wrote an article the other day about us having offers out to 26 of the  current Rivals Top 100. That’s a higher number than I remember us ever having, but we’re not top heavy chasing those recruits. Personally, I don’t want us chasing a bunch of guys that the chance of us getting are low…but our recruiting staff does a wonderful job of evaluating guys that aren’t in that top category.

This is the time to go after more of those high level recruits though, capitalizing on the Sugar Bowl appearance and our national exposure as a team, which is higher than I can remember. Sure, we got a lot of exposure when DMac/Felix were here, but it was more exposure for them than the team. If we can stay in that top echelon, we’ll consistently go after those top recruits more.

Other Teams

LSU, Florida, and Alabama are at the top of the list, just like they always are, due to their location and perennial status.

Obviously Auburn has the highest number of 5 star offers out there trying to capitalize on their National Championship. They also have a ton of holes to fill on the two-deep with only four returning offensive starters. Nationally, expectations for Auburn are lower this year, so it’s time for them to strike while the iron is hot.

Tennessee is really trying to upgrade their talent to get out of the slump they’ve been in for years now. They’re going to have to show more success on the field before they get back to getting better talent. We were in the same boat until our significant coaching upgrade. Dooley’s nowhere near the class of Bobby Petrino.

Vanderbilt has the most offers out, but that’s not surprising as recruiting a kid there has to be the most difficult of all SEC schools. Get the offers out to the top talent, knowing they’re most likely not going to come…and making sure they account for that with lots of offers across the board.

The state of Mississippi doesn’t have a single player in the Top 100, which is no doubt driving where OM and MSSt stand on the list. In fact, the state currently has three 4 star recruits and one 3 star. That will likely change as Rivals expands their ratings. They’re always going to recruit locally first then look outside the state because there’s typically a lot of talent in the state.

Kentucky is just Kentucky.

Check out the Recruiting Forum for offer/commit updates as we get around to updating them.

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